Albanese government could be forced to slash fuel excise with claims diesel price could hit $4 (news.com.au)

Description

Interviewed on the consequences for Australia of a proposed US diesel export ban, and dissenting from the forecast of $4 diesel and rationing carried elsewhere in the article. Characterised a ban as producing a cost issue rather than a supply issue, forecasting metropolitan diesel at $3.20 to $3.30 a litre and predicting that at that level the government would halve the fuel excise again, as it did in March when diesel passed $3.10, because easing inflationary pressure would outweigh forgone revenue.

Supplied original tanker-data analysis establishing that Australia ranks only 21st among destinations for US diesel exports during the Iran war, with the largest buyers being Chile, France, the United Kingdom, Brazil, Mexico and Peru — quantifying the direct supply exposure as small while identifying the indirect price channel: European and Latin American buyers displaced toward Korean cargoes would lift Singapore gas oil prices, which flow directly to Australian pumps. Noted that more than 40 per cent of Australian diesel imports that month came from South Korea. On rationing, set a specific condition — it arises only if tankers physically stop arriving — and grounded the assessment in 32 days of cover and imports holding at approximately 485,000 barrels a day through the war.

Subject

Proposed US diesel export ban, Australian ranking among US export destinations, Singapore gas oil transmission and fuel excise policy response.