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Australia’s jet fuel reaches ‘critical shortage’ as China’s export ban intensifies global scramble for supply (The West Australian, Western Australia)

Press/Media: Expert Comment

Description

Quoted as the article's lead expert, warning that Australian airlines could face jet fuel shortfall as early as June should South Korean exporters restrict supply. Explained why jet fuel constitutes the binding constraint rather than diesel or petrol — it is held in small volumes at airport locations rather than in bulk storage, making it the first product to bind under disruption — and assessed Australia's concentrated dependence on South Korean refineries following China's export ban. Also supplied shipping data on jet fuel cargoes inbound to Australian ports and their origin refineries.

Subject

Australian jet fuel security, South Korean refinery export dependence and airline capacity response during Middle East supply disruption.

Period23 Apr 2026

Media contributions

1

Media contributions

  • TitleAustralia's jet fuel reaches 'critical shortage' as China's export ban intensifies global scramble for supply,
    Degree of recognitionNational
    Media name/outletThe West Australian
    Media typeWeb
    Duration/Length/Size4 min read
    Country/TerritoryAustralia
    Date23/04/26
    DescriptionThis article reports on Australia's jet fuel position following China's ban on jet fuel exports other than to Hong Kong and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of the heavy sour crude refined into jet fuel across Asian refineries transits. Dr Lurion De Mello provides the article's central assessment, identifying jet fuel rather than diesel or petrol as the critical shortage on the grounds that it is not held in bulk but stored around airports, making it acutely exposed to any interruption. He judges supply adequate to mid-May with capacity reduction available as a buffer, while warning that Australia's heavy reliance on South Korean refineries creates material risk should Korea cap exports, and notes the recent diversification of April cargoes to Taiwanese and Malaysian sources. Drawing on shipping data, he identifies three South Korean tankers carrying approximately 850,000 barrels of jet fuel inbound to Australian ports through mid-May, with typical sailing times of around two weeks. The piece sets this against Qantas cutting one in twenty domestic flights, Virgin Australia's inability to secure supply assurances beyond May, jet fuel costs having doubled since February, Brent crude trading above US$103, and IEA warnings that Europe holds roughly six weeks of jet fuel cover.
    Producer/AuthorTom Richardson
    URLhttps://thewest.com.au/news/australia/australias-jet-fuel-reaches-critical-shortage-as-chinas-export-ban-intensifies-global-scramble-for-supply-c-22181201
    PersonsLurion De Mello