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Fuel prices didn’t skyrocket before. Here’s why they could shoot up this time (The Straits Times, Singapore)

Press/Media: Expert Comment

Description

Nature of contribution: Expert source representing the Australian assessment in a pan-Asian analysis, contributed via the paper's Sydney correspondent. One of more than a dozen analysts consulted across the region.

Description

Quoted as the Australian expert in a regional survey of how Asia-Pacific economies weathered the Hormuz disruption. Distinguished Australia's exposure from that of crude importers, identifying the nightmare scenario as interruption to the refined petrol, diesel and jet fuel arriving daily by tanker from Asian refining hubs rather than to crude supply itself, and attributing the resilience of Australian supply not to a mild crisis but to the demonstrated adaptability of the Asian refining network on which Australia depends.

Theme

Refinery-mediated import dependence — the distinction between crude exposure and refined product exposure in assessing national fuel vulnerability.

Subject

Australian dependence on Asian refining capacity, regional crude diversification and comparative Asia-Pacific fuel resilience.

Period18 Jul 2026

Media contributions

1

Media contributions

  • TitleFuel prices didn’t skyrocket before. Here’s why they could shoot up this time
    Degree of recognitionInternational
    Media name/outletThe Straits times
    Media typeWeb
    Duration/Length/Size7 min read
    Country/TerritorySingapore
    Date18/07/26
    DescriptionThis regional feature examines why the anticipated oil shock failed to materialise during the first months of the Hormuz closure, and whether renewed US–Iran hostilities will now produce one. It identifies the buffers that cushioned the initial disruption — pre-war oversupply, a steep contraction in Chinese crude imports to near-decade lows, non-Gulf production growth led by the United States, and coordinated release of 400 million barrels by the International Energy Agency — while noting IMF warnings that much of that room has since been consumed and that strategic and commercial stocks now sit well below their pre-war levels. Dr Lurion De Mello supplies the Australian assessment, distinguishing Australia's position from that of crude importers: the nightmare scenario concerned refined petrol, diesel and jet fuel arriving by tanker from Asian refining hubs rather than crude supply, and Australian supply held not because the crisis proved mild but because the Asian refining network serving it proved ruthlessly adaptable. The piece surveys the corresponding adaptations across the region — Indian expansion of Russian, US and West African purchases; South Korean and Japanese diversification as far as Mexico, Ecuador, Azerbaijan, Venezuela and Canada; Malaysian sourcing from West Africa and Latin America; Indonesian redirection of domestic output — and contrasts the well-stocked positions of Japan, South Korea and Thailand with the exposure of import-dependent economies including Bangladesh, Cambodia and the Philippines. It closes on emerging risks including Iranian targeting of Hormuz shuttle operations, potential closure of the Red Sea route, and a Russian diesel export ban following Ukrainian strikes on refining capacity.
    Producer/AuthorChew Hui Min
    URLhttps://www.straitstimes.com/world/fuel-prices-didnt-skyrocket-before-heres-why-they-could-shoot-up-this-time
    PersonsLurion De Mello
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