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Fuel prices rising in the US as costs stabilise in Australia (ABC News)

Press/Media: Expert Comment

Description

Quoted on the divergence between rising United States and moderating Australian fuel prices, identifying US storage capacity as the factor that had insulated its market from the initial shock while noting that supply was beginning to tighten even for the world's largest producer, placing upward pressure on prices there. Separately provided the forward assessment for Australia, forecasting price increases into June driven by the expiry of excise relief and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and quantifying the volume withdrawn from the market at close to two billion barrels — with the risk that non-Middle East sources prove unable to meet displaced demand, producing a reversal in both petrol and diesel prices.

Subject

Australian and United States fuel price divergence, storage capacity as a shock absorber, and the outlook following excise expiry.

Period5 May 2026

Media contributions

1

Media contributions

  • TitleFuel prices rising in the US as costs stabilise in Australia
    Degree of recognitionNational
    Media name/outletABC News
    Media typeWeb
    Country/TerritoryAustralia
    Date5/05/26
    DescriptionThis article compares fuel price movements in Australia and the United States, documenting US 95 octane unleaded rising more than 40 per cent since February to near four-year highs while Australian unleaded returned close to pre-conflict levels and diesel eased from its April peak. Dr Lurion De Mello identifies US storage capacity as having absorbed the initial shock, while noting that supply was tightening even for the world's largest producer and beginning to push prices upward there. He forecasts Australian prices rising into June, driven by the scheduled expiry of excise relief alongside the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and quantifies the volume removed from the market at close to two billion barrels — with the prospect of a reversal in petrol and diesel prices should alternative fields prove unable to meet displaced demand. Supporting analysis attributes Australia's comparative softening to the retail price cycle's discounting phase, to excise relief, and to a seven to fourteen day lag between international benchmark movements and pump prices, while noting that the United States was insulated initially by its producer status but received no equivalent tax mitigation. The piece notes that Australian inflation rose by almost a percentage point to 4.6 per cent in March, driven largely by automotive fuel prices increasing more than 30 per cent.
    Producer/AuthorAhmed Yussuf
    URLhttps://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-05-06/fuel-prices-rising-in-us-as-costs-stabilise-in-australia/106630042
    PersonsLurion De Mello
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