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'Much higher': Worst news for Aussie drivers as Iran shuts Strait of Hormuz again, (news.com.au)

Press/Media: Expert Comment

Description

Quoted on the differential consequences of renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the design of fuel excise relief. Argued that complete closure poses limited risk to petrol while bearing directly on diesel and jet fuel, since Gulf crude grades are the feedstock for those products, and urged the government to retain the excise reduction for diesel specifically, noting that petrol below $2 per litre is manageable, whereas reinstating the full excise would push diesel toward $2.20 to $2.30. Drawing on shipment tracking, identified US diesel cargoes as having secured Australian supply during April, with the country subsequently reverting to Asian sourcing including unexpectedly large South Korean volumes, and confirmed the absence of US shipments in May with none then scheduled for June.

Subject

Strait of Hormuz closure, crude slate effects on diesel and jet fuel supply, and the design of Australian fuel excise relief.

Period11 Jun 2026

Media contributions

1

Media contributions

  • Title'Much higher': Worst news for Aussie drivers as Iran shuts Strait of Hormuz again,
    Degree of recognitionNational
    Media name/outletnews.com.au
    Media typeWeb
    Duration/Length/Size3 min read
    Country/TerritoryAustralia
    Date11/06/26
    DescriptionThis article reports the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' declaration that the Strait of Hormuz was closed to all vessel transit following the collapse of the ceasefire and renewed US strikes, and assesses the consequences for Australian fuel prices ahead of the scheduled expiry of excise relief on 30 June. Dr Lurion De Mello sets out the differential exposure across products, arguing that complete closure would have limited consequences for petrol but bears directly on diesel and jet fuel, since Middle East crude grades are the feedstock from which those products are refined. On that basis he urges retention of the excise reduction for diesel specifically, noting that petrol below $2 per litre is manageable while full reinstatement would carry diesel to $2.20 or $2.30 — a material burden given its role in mining, agriculture and road freight. Drawing on his shipment tracking, he identifies US cargoes delivering some billions of litres of diesel in April as having secured Australian supply at the critical point, notes the subsequent reversion to Asian sourcing including unexpectedly large South Korean volumes, and confirms the absence of US shipments in May with none scheduled for June. Supporting analysis from MST Financial estimates transit volumes at under 15 per cent of normal rates before the closure and warns of sharply higher prices should the strait remain shut through the northern summer. The piece contrasts these assessments with ministerial assurances of nearly three months of reserve cover and 50 vessels inbound carrying an expected 3.5 billion litres.
    Producer/Author Harrison Christian
    URLhttps://www.news.com.au/national/much-higher-worst-news-for-aussie-drivers-as-iran-shuts-strait-of-hormuz-again/news-story/b6138e197ca2f6bd158d68d88486fc2c
    PersonsLurion De Mello
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