Media contributions
1Media contributions
Title Search for new fuel supplies bearing fruit Degree of recognition National Media name/outlet The Age Media type Print Country/Territory Australia Date 4/04/24 Description This article reports a marked increase in cargoes scheduled to deliver crude and refined fuel to Australia, with 55 shipments arrived or en route through April drawn from sources across five continents including the United States, South America and Africa, as suppliers diversify away from the Asian refineries that ordinarily provide around 80 per cent of national liquid fuel needs. Dr Lurion De Mello quantifies the shift, estimating 10 to 15 additional shipments beyond normal expectations and describing the increase in tanker numbers as extraordinary. He also provides the article's principal caveat: that the lag effect of insufficient crude reaching Asian refiners in the coming weeks threatened to curtail regional exports in May, marking that as the point at which Australian supply could begin to be affected. The piece sets this against commentary from Viva Energy and Ampol on securing cargoes from the United States, Europe and South America, the Energy Minister's observation that Asian refiners were themselves diversifying crude sources, tightening in the Asian spot market as regional refineries reduced run rates and China halted transport fuel exports, the Commonwealth's underwriting of spot cargoes through Export Finance Australia, and 410 service stations then without diesel and 193 without petrol.
In this article my independent vessel-tracking count is set directly against the government's own reassurance on supply, and I used the same interview to flag that the lag effect of insufficient crude reaching Asian refiners would begin to constrain regional exports in May. That forecast proved substantively correct: subsequent reporting in late April documented precisely the collapse in Asian refinery throughput and middle distillate yield I had identified, with South Korean utilisation falling toward 65 per cent and Singapore averaging below 50 per cent. The dated, public and falsifiable nature of the call makes this a strong exhibit of research-informed forecasting in the media record.Producer/Author Nick Toscano URL https://simsrad.net.ocs.mq.edu.au/login?url=https://www.proquest.com/newspapers/search-new-fuel-supplies-bearing-fruit/docview/3324899240/se-2?accountid=12219 Persons Lurion De Mello