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What will happen if Australia ran out of fuel (7News)

Press/Media: Expert Comment

Description

Interviewed on the consequences of a complete fuel supply failure and the contingency planning required to avoid one. Argued that the government would need to prepare demand restrictions and rationing ahead of need, identifying an export ban by a major supplier country as the trigger point for action, and proposing number plate rotation or a QR-based system modelled on COVID-era administration. Emphasised the necessity of having contingency measures designed in advance rather than assembled after the fact. Set out the sectoral consequences of shortfall — transport and supply chains first, then hospitals, ambulances and farming, with flow-through to grocery availability and prices — while insisting that assessment must distinguish between petrol, diesel and jet fuel. On the longer term, argued that additional refining capacity is not the answer given the age, cost and comparative inefficiency of Australian refineries, favouring instead expanded domestic storage or regional cooperation arrangements to hold fuel or jointly fund refining capacity, on the grounds that Australia's isolation makes resupply inherently slow.

Subject

Australian fuel emergency planning, rationing mechanisms, the viability of refining capacity, and regional fuel storage cooperation.

fuel shortage, costs, inflation, sovereign capability

Period25 Mar 2026

Media contributions

1

Media contributions

  • TitleEconomic expert reveals what would happen if Australia ran out of fuel
    Degree of recognitionNational
    Media name/outlet7news.com.au
    Media typeWeb
    Duration/Length/Size4 min read
    Country/TerritoryAustralia
    Date25/03/26
    DescriptionThis article examines what a complete failure of Australian fuel supply would entail and what the government should be preparing in advance. Dr Lurion De Mello argues that restrictions on driving and formal rationing may become necessary, identifying an export ban by a major supplier as the signal to act, and proposing number plate rotation or a QR-based allocation system drawing on COVID-era administrative precedent — while stressing that contingency measures must be designed before they are needed rather than improvised once shortage arrives. He sets out the sequence of consequences, with transport and distribution affected first given diesel's role in freight, followed by hospitals, ambulances and agriculture, and flow-through to the availability and price of groceries and fresh produce. On structural remedies he argues that additional refining capacity is not the answer, since Australia's remaining refineries are old, costly and less efficient than Asian competitors, favouring instead expanded domestic storage or regional cooperation to store fuel or contribute to shared refining capacity — a case he grounds in Australia's geographic isolation and the time required to move goods to and from its shores. The piece is set against the release of 20 per cent of reserve stocks, temporarily lowered fuel standards, six cancelled or deferred April tankers, and IEA recommendations on demand reduction.
    Producer/AuthorSarah Keszler
    URLhttps://7news.com.au/news/economic-expert-reveals-what-would-happen-if-australia-ran-out-of-fuel-c-22033086
    PersonsLurion De Mello