Forecasting the old-age dependency ratio to determine a sustainable pension age

Purpose of research project *

We forecast the old-age dependency ratio for Australia under various pension age proposals, and estimate a pension age scheme that will provide a stable old-age dependency ratio at a specified level. Our approach involves a stochastic population forecasting method based on coherent functional data models for mortality, fertility and net migration, which we use to simulate the future age-structure of the population. Our results suggest that the Australian pension age should be increased to 68 by 2030, 69 by 2036 and 70 by 2050, in order to maintain the old-age dependency ratio at 23%, just above the 2018 level. Our general approach can easily be extended to other target levels of the old-age dependency ratio and to other countries.

Who has, is or will benefit *

Government policy makers; Everyday Australians

Description of impact *

Using the sustainable old-age dependency ratio as a criterion, we forecast the sustainable pension age for Australia. Our prediction indicates that the pension age will likely increase, and this news has attracted considerable media attention. Time will tell whether or not such a prediction is accurate.

Impact date	Jun 2021
Category of impact	Society impacts
Impact level	Adoption (early)