Analyzing Geographical Variation in Cause-of-death Mortality for China: Evidence from 2004 to 2017

This project aims to model and forecast future mortality improvement in China, by geographical regions, as well as by causes of death. We collect the most up-to-date deaths and population exposures data from “China’s Causes of Death Monitoring Dataset” published by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention over the period 2004–2017. Closely following the SOA initiatives for US mortality modeling, we adopt the MIM-21 framework to conduct smoothing and projection of mortality improvement rates. This project will also develop an interactive tool for exploring and visualizing Chinese mortality data and our model outputs. This interactive tool will act as a crucial decision-support tool for the local actuarial profession.