Project Details
Description
This project funded by the Macquarie University Data Horizons Centre seeks to examine the applicability of Change Point Analysis – a statistical method – to the study of handwriting (palaeography) used on ancient papyrus manuscripts. Specifically, this technique will be applied to papyrus manuscripts produced by a modern forger in order to understand how forgers develop their skills. As the palaeography of genuine ancient papyri varies depending on the date and genre of the manuscript, Change Point Analysis will also be used to test whether forgers are able to vary handwriting to signal these differences too.
A complex cross-disciplinary technique to distinguish points of meaningful variation is required as the handwriting found on forged manuscripts is subject to multiple influences including i) the technical ability of the forger at the time of production, ii) the intentional variation of handwriting style deployed by the forger, iii) the material constraints of the manuscript surface.
This project thus aims to assess whether Change Point Analysis may be used to identify:
a.stages in the development of a forger’s proficiency in the replication of ancient handwriting on papyrus, and
b.intentional manipulations in handwriting features to signal shifts in genre and date within a specific case study, the 19th century papyrus forgeries of Constantine Simonides.
The use of Change Point Analysis in this new domain will further demonstrate its effectiveness and applicability in other fields in tracking the development of competency and expertise – a key concern for designing the future of work given the need for agility in skills development and acquisition – as well as confirm its power to identify anomalies in the production of handwriting – vital to protect signatures and other legal expressions dependent on handwriting from manipulation and fabrication.
Few archives of authentic papyrus manuscripts of different genres (both literary and documentary, i.e. private and official letters, petitions, receipts, etc.) produced by a single scribe have survived. As such it is difficult to reconstruct the technical development of a single scribe over time. Moreover, few archives of forged papyri have been preserved which allow us to witness the development of a forger’s ability over time and in context. Addressing the complexity of the variables involved in tracking the development of a scribe’s handwriting style over time and genre is vital to test the assumptions which underpin the handwriting typology used to date most manuscripts in the ancient world. Most work in the field has concentrated on the analysis of single manuscripts and thus few techniques have been tested across larger samples. A particular innovation of this project that is relevant to the cross-disciplinary focus of the Consilience Centre is the application of statistical techniques to palaeographical analysis, especially for forged papyri, which is under-utilised. Advanced techniques like Change Point Analysis have never been applied to such evidence, making this a truly novel proposal.
By using this approach to analyse papyrus manuscripts forged by a known individual over a discrete period of time we can reconstruct a model of how palaeographical skills are developed at the individual level. Forged papyri offer an important analogy to the ancient situation for two reasons: i) they allow us to view individual practice as dynamic and variable and ii) forgers tend to begin with literary copies and then move into the production of documentary texts (that is private or official letters, petitions, receipts, and so on) in parallel to the educational stages used to acquire literacy in antiquity. This results and methods would be immensely useful to scholars who work on literary and language acquisition in the ancient world. Finally, understanding the way intentional variation works in a context in which an individual is developing faux literacy may allow us to identify other outliers and thus other forgeries in museums and private collections.
A complex cross-disciplinary technique to distinguish points of meaningful variation is required as the handwriting found on forged manuscripts is subject to multiple influences including i) the technical ability of the forger at the time of production, ii) the intentional variation of handwriting style deployed by the forger, iii) the material constraints of the manuscript surface.
This project thus aims to assess whether Change Point Analysis may be used to identify:
a.stages in the development of a forger’s proficiency in the replication of ancient handwriting on papyrus, and
b.intentional manipulations in handwriting features to signal shifts in genre and date within a specific case study, the 19th century papyrus forgeries of Constantine Simonides.
The use of Change Point Analysis in this new domain will further demonstrate its effectiveness and applicability in other fields in tracking the development of competency and expertise – a key concern for designing the future of work given the need for agility in skills development and acquisition – as well as confirm its power to identify anomalies in the production of handwriting – vital to protect signatures and other legal expressions dependent on handwriting from manipulation and fabrication.
Few archives of authentic papyrus manuscripts of different genres (both literary and documentary, i.e. private and official letters, petitions, receipts, etc.) produced by a single scribe have survived. As such it is difficult to reconstruct the technical development of a single scribe over time. Moreover, few archives of forged papyri have been preserved which allow us to witness the development of a forger’s ability over time and in context. Addressing the complexity of the variables involved in tracking the development of a scribe’s handwriting style over time and genre is vital to test the assumptions which underpin the handwriting typology used to date most manuscripts in the ancient world. Most work in the field has concentrated on the analysis of single manuscripts and thus few techniques have been tested across larger samples. A particular innovation of this project that is relevant to the cross-disciplinary focus of the Consilience Centre is the application of statistical techniques to palaeographical analysis, especially for forged papyri, which is under-utilised. Advanced techniques like Change Point Analysis have never been applied to such evidence, making this a truly novel proposal.
By using this approach to analyse papyrus manuscripts forged by a known individual over a discrete period of time we can reconstruct a model of how palaeographical skills are developed at the individual level. Forged papyri offer an important analogy to the ancient situation for two reasons: i) they allow us to view individual practice as dynamic and variable and ii) forgers tend to begin with literary copies and then move into the production of documentary texts (that is private or official letters, petitions, receipts, and so on) in parallel to the educational stages used to acquire literacy in antiquity. This results and methods would be immensely useful to scholars who work on literary and language acquisition in the ancient world. Finally, understanding the way intentional variation works in a context in which an individual is developing faux literacy may allow us to identify other outliers and thus other forgeries in museums and private collections.
Layman's description
Forgeries pollute data sets of all kinds and compromise their value. Forgers often evade detection by varying their practice as they become more fluent in the use of particular strategies to advertise the authenticity of their wares. Their dynamic practice is sensitive to advances in detection and trends in the market. Understanding how forgers develop and deploy their skillsets over time in a responsive way is critical to anticipating security risks. Our pilot study brings together Dr Rachel Yuen-Collingridge, expert in the analysis of ancient papyrus manuscripts, with Associate Professor Georgy Sofronov, expert in data analytics and statistics, to apply Change Point Analysis to detect changes in the handwriting style used by the 19th century forger, Constantine Simonides, on forged ancient papyrus manuscripts. Through this case study we will reconstruct a model of how individual competency in deception was developed and deployed.
| Status | Not started |
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