二氧化碳减排对中国未来GDP增长的影响

The China MARKAL-MACRO model was used to study the impacts of carbon emission reduction on the gross domestic product (GDP) growth for future carbon emission reduction in China. Six carbon emission reduction scenarios were designed. The results show that the GDP loss rate would be in 0-2.5% for reduction rates of 0-45%. The quantitatively GDP loss predictions for the whole planning horizon for the different reduction scenarios, indicates that the GDP would start to decline at around 10 years before setting the reduction constrains, and the GDP losses would gradually increase and last for several years after setting the reduction constrains. If the start of the emission reductions is the year of 2030, 2020 or 2010 instead of 2040, then the undiscounted total GDP losses in the whole planning horizon would be 0.58-0.74, 1.00-1.32, or 1.10-1.83 times higher.