全球未来碳排放权“两个趋同”的分配方法

The major global carbon permit allocation approaches introduced since 1995 were evaluated and a two-convergence approach was developed. The first convergence is that by the year 2100 each country's per capita carbon emissions should be equal, while the second convergence is that the accumulated per capita carbon emissions from 1990 to 2100 for each country should be the same. The future carbon permits for China and other major countries or regions in 2030, 2050 and 2100 were compared for various allocation approaches, including the two-convergence approach, contraction and convergence, multi-stages increasing participation, and Triptych. The results show that the two-convergence approach allows developing countries enough development room to realize industrialization and accords with fair, common but differentiated, and sustainable development principles.