TY - JOUR
T1 - A constraint on historic growth in global photosynthesis due to rising CO2
AU - Keenan, T. F.
AU - Luo, X.
AU - Stocker, B. D.
AU - De Kauwe, M. G.
AU - Medlyn, B. E.
AU - Prentice, I. C.
AU - Smith, N. G.
AU - Terrer, C.
AU - Wang, H.
AU - Zhang, Y.
AU - Zhou, S.
N1 - Copyright the Author(s) 2023. Version archived for private and non-commercial use with the permission of the author/s and according to publisher conditions. For further rights please contact the publisher.
PY - 2023/12
Y1 - 2023/12
N2 - Theory predicts that rising CO2 increases global photosynthesis, a process known as CO2 fertilization, and that this is responsible for much of the current terrestrial carbon sink. The estimated magnitude of the historic CO2 fertilization, however, differs by an order of magnitude between long-term proxies, remote sensing-based estimates and terrestrial biosphere models. Here we constrain the likely historic effect of CO2 on global photosynthesis by combining terrestrial biosphere models, ecological optimality theory, remote sensing approaches and an emergent constraint based on global carbon budget estimates. Our analysis suggests that CO2 fertilization increased global annual terrestrial photosynthesis by 13.5 ± 3.5% or 15.9 ± 2.9 PgC (mean ± s.d.) between 1981 and 2020. Our results help resolve conflicting estimates of the historic sensitivity of global terrestrial photosynthesis to CO2 and highlight the large impact anthropogenic emissions have had on ecosystems worldwide.
AB - Theory predicts that rising CO2 increases global photosynthesis, a process known as CO2 fertilization, and that this is responsible for much of the current terrestrial carbon sink. The estimated magnitude of the historic CO2 fertilization, however, differs by an order of magnitude between long-term proxies, remote sensing-based estimates and terrestrial biosphere models. Here we constrain the likely historic effect of CO2 on global photosynthesis by combining terrestrial biosphere models, ecological optimality theory, remote sensing approaches and an emergent constraint based on global carbon budget estimates. Our analysis suggests that CO2 fertilization increased global annual terrestrial photosynthesis by 13.5 ± 3.5% or 15.9 ± 2.9 PgC (mean ± s.d.) between 1981 and 2020. Our results help resolve conflicting estimates of the historic sensitivity of global terrestrial photosynthesis to CO2 and highlight the large impact anthropogenic emissions have had on ecosystems worldwide.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85178129113&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/CE170100023
UR - http://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/DP190101823
U2 - 10.1038/s41558-023-01867-2
DO - 10.1038/s41558-023-01867-2
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85178129113
SN - 1758-678X
VL - 13
SP - 1376
EP - 1381
JO - Nature Climate Change
JF - Nature Climate Change
IS - 12
ER -