A dynamic risk model to analyze hydrogen infrastructure

Esmaeil Zarei, Faisal Khan*, Mohammad Yazdi

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

64 Citations (Scopus)


[Graphical abstract presents]

Safety management of hydrogen infrastructure is vital for sustainable progress in the hydrogen economy. Accordingly, this paper presents a dynamic and holistic risk model to address some significant shortcomings of the current hydrogen risk analysis models. The hydrogen release scenarios are modeled using the Bow-tie technique integrated with improved D Numbers Theory and Best-Worst Method. This helps to analyze epistemic uncertainty in the prior probabilities of the causation factors and barriers. Subsequently, a Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) model is developed to analyze dynamic risk and deal with aleatory uncertainty. The application of the proposed model is demonstrated on a water electrolysis process. The results of the case study provide a better understanding of the causal modeling of accident scenarios, associated evolving risks with uncertainty. The proposed model will serve as a useful tool for the operational safety management of the hydrogen infrastructure or other complex engineering systems.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)4626-4643
Number of pages18
JournalInternational Journal of Hydrogen Energy
Issue number5
Publication statusPublished - 19 Jan 2021
Externally publishedYes


  • Dynamic risk analysis
  • Hydrogen safety
  • Dynamic bayesian network
  • D-number theory
  • Best-worst method


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