A manufacturing cost estimation method with uncertainty analysis and its application to perovskite on glass photovoltaic modules

Manufacturing cost analysis is becoming an increasingly important tool in the photovoltaics industry to identify research areas that need attention and enable progress towards cost reduction targets. We describe a method to estimate manufacturing cost that is suitable for use during an early stage of technology development, delivering both the manufacturing cost estimate as well as an uncertainty analysis that quickly highlights the opportunities for greatest cost improvement. We apply the technique to three process sequences for the large‐scale production of organic‐inorganic hybrid perovskite photovoltaic modules. A process sequence that combines two demonstrated perovskite module sequences is estimated to cost $107/m² (uncertainty range $87 to 140/m²), comparable with commercial crystalline silicon and cadmium telluride technologies (on a US $/m² basis). A levelized cost of electricity calculation shows that this perovskite technology would be competitive in 2015 with incumbent photovoltaic technologies if a module power conversion efficiency of 18% and lifetime of 20 years can be achieved. Further analysis shows that even if the cost of the active layers and rear electrode were reduced to zero, a module power conversion efficiency of 18% and lifetime of 20 years would be required to meet the 2020 SunShot levelized cost of electricity targets.