A methodology for project portfolio selection under criteria prioritisation, uncertainty and projects interdependency – combination of fuzzy QFD and DEA

Resources of an organisation (people, time, money, equipment, etc) are never endless. As such, a constant and continuous challenge for decision makers is to decide which projects should be given priority in terms of receiving critical resources in a way that the organisation's productivity and profitability is best guaranteed. Previous literature has already developed a plenitude of project portfolio selection methodologies ranging from simple scoring to complex mathematical models. However, most of them too often fail to propose one integrated and seamless method that can simultaneously take into account three important elements: (1) prioritisation of selection criteria over each other, (2) uncertainty in decision-making, and (3) projects interdependencies. This paper aims to fill this gap by proposing an integrated method that can simultaneously address all these three aspects. The proposed method combines Quality Function Development (QFD), fuzzy logic, and Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to accounts for prioritisation, uncertainty and interdependency. We then apply this method in a numerical example from a real world case to illustrate the applicability and efficacy of the proposed methodology.