A more dangerous neighbourhood: implications of Indo-Pacific arms modernisation for Australian defence strategy

Australian defence policy has traditionally rested upon the belief that geographic isolation and technological superiority protected Australia from conventional attack. These assumptions have been called into question by rapid economic development across the Indo-Pacific. The recent Defence Strategic Review (the DSR) has stated that Australia can no longer rely on geographic isolation or relative technological advantage. Australia has entered a period of unprecedented strategic competition. This paper offers a supplementary framework to assist planners looking to implement the recommendations of the DSR. We argue that Australia needs a broader vocabulary and more precise language for discussing threats to territorial integrity. Terms such as ‘defence’ and ‘attack’ are no longer sufficient to capture the spectrum of risks. To explain this, we use the prism of time and space. Time and space are two key elements of defence strategy. By analysing strategic risk within these two arenas, we can provide a new framework for defence planning.
We first examine the implications of force modernisation in the Indo-Pacific for Australian defence planners’ understandings of time. We argue that Australia’s procurement times have become longer than those of some of its regional neighbours, such as China, which in turn is eroding its technological advantage. The changes within Australia’s region have also affected strategists’ notions of space. While time and space are shrinking, we argue that this is not occurring in a unified pattern. The warning time for high-tech or grey-zone aggressions may be diminished; however, Australia still maintains a time/space buffer from conventional attack. This is because no other state has developed the capabilities to execute a conventional attack upon the Australian mainland without a forward operating base. We, therefore, support the DSR recommendations that Australian maintain and expand its influence in South-East Asia and the South Pacific. Specifically, to ensure that no hostile power acquires such a foothold in Australia’s vicinity.