A probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis of California

Hong Kie Thio, Paul Somerville

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference proceeding contribution

    4 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    We have computed maps of probabilistic tsunami inundation hazard for California using a hybrid approach of numerical tsunami simulations and probabilistic integration of the hazard. The earthquake sources mainly include large subduction zone sources around the Pacific Rim. Our method uses a two-step process: the first step consists of the computation of probabilistic offshore waveheights, based on several thousands of scenario calculations, that include both epistemic uncertainty through the use of logic trees as well as aleatory variability, by applying a standard deviation (sigma) to the probabilistic waveheights. We then use these offshore waveheights, and the source disaggregation, to develop sets of fully non-linear tsunami simulations, including inundation, that span the range of probabilistic offshore waveheights. We present inundation maps for several return periods of engineering interest and discuss their implications and use for infrastructure applications.

    Original languageEnglish
    Title of host publicationTCLEE 2009: Lifeline Earthquake Engineering in a Multihazard Environment
    Place of PublicationReston, VA
    Pages57
    Number of pages1
    Volume357
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2009
    Event2009 ASCE Technical Council on Lifeline Earthquake Engineering Conference, TCLEE 2009: Lifeline Earthquake Engineering in a Multihazard Environment - Oakland, CA, United States
    Duration: 28 Jun 20091 Jul 2009

    Other

    Other2009 ASCE Technical Council on Lifeline Earthquake Engineering Conference, TCLEE 2009: Lifeline Earthquake Engineering in a Multihazard Environment
    CountryUnited States
    CityOakland, CA
    Period28/06/091/07/09

    Keywords

    • California
    • Probability
    • Tsunamis

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  • Cite this

    Thio, H. K., & Somerville, P. (2009). A probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis of California. In TCLEE 2009: Lifeline Earthquake Engineering in a Multihazard Environment (Vol. 357, pp. 57). Reston, VA. https://doi.org/10.1061/41050(357)57