A quantitative model of honey bee colony population dynamics

David S. Khoury, Mary R. Myerscough, Andrew B. Barron

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

146 Citations (Scopus)
100 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

Since 2006 the rate of honey bee colony failure has increased significantly. As an aid to testing hypotheses for the causes of colony failure we have developed a compartment model of honey bee colony population dynamics to explore the impact of different death rates of forager bees on colony growth and development. The model predicts a critical threshold forager death rate beneath which colonies regulate a stable population size. If death rates are sustained higher than this threshold rapid population decline is predicted and colony failure is inevitable. The model also predicts that high forager death rates draw hive bees into the foraging population at much younger ages than normal, which acts to accelerate colony failure. The model suggests that colony failure can be understood in terms of observed principles of honey bee population dynamics, and provides a theoretical framework for experimental investigation of the problem.

Original languageEnglish
Article numbere18491
Pages (from-to)1-6
Number of pages6
JournalPLoS ONE
Volume6
Issue number4
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2011

Bibliographical note

Copyright the Author(s) 2011. Version archived for private and non-commercial use with the permission of the author/s and according to publisher conditions. For further rights please contact the publisher.

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