A robust risk assessment methodology for safety analysis of marine structures under storm conditions

Mohammad Mahdi Abaei, Ehsan Arzaghi, Rouzbeh Abbassi, Vikram Garaniya, Shuhong Chai, Faisal Khan

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

32 Citations (Scopus)


Accidents involving vessels and/or offshore structures (henceforth referred to as marine structures) may pose high financial, environmental and fatality risk. To effectively manage these risks a methodical approach is required to model accident load and the stochastic behaviour of the marine structure that are arising from storm effects. This paper introduces a proactive framework that identifies and considers all the initial relevant risks. Compared to the conventional approaches that rely on precursor data for accident modelling, the developed methodology utilizes the critical stochastic variables directly from the hydrodynamic analysis of the floating structure. For this purpose, a novel numerical model is proposed to replicate a storm based on Endurance Wave Analysis (EWA) method. This approach reduces the computational cost (time and load) of the simulations. The critical stochastic variables are subsequently used in Bayesian Network (BN) to develop the risk model. The EWA and BN based integrated methodology assists in better understanding of accident causation and associated risk in changing operational conditions. The application of the methodology is demonstrated through a Floating Storage Unit (FSU) experiencing capsizing scenario.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)167-178
Number of pages12
JournalOcean Engineering
Publication statusPublished - 15 May 2018
Externally publishedYes


  • risk assessment
  • safety analysis
  • marine structures
  • harsh conditions


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