A time series investigation of three nicotine regulation models

Wayne F. Velicer*, Colleen A. Redding, Robyn L. Richmond, Janet Greeley, Wendy Swift

*Corresponding author for this work

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

    26 Citations (Scopus)


    Time series data were collected twice daily for 62 days from 10 individuals on three variables related to smoking habit strength: number of cigarettes smoked, salivary cotinine, and carbon monoxide. The two purposes of this study were: (a) to evaluate which time series model(s) best fits each of the measures; and (b) to determine which model of nicotine regulation is consistent with the data. Three models of nicotine regulation were considered: (a) nicotine fixed effect; (b) nicotine regulation; and (c) multiple regulation. These models provide different predictions about the size and direction of the lag-one autocorrelation. Each measure was described in terms of one of a family of time series models represented mathematically as ARIMA (p, d, q). Models varied by individual, but a single model described the majority of subjects for all three variables. The clearest model identification was for the number of cigarettes smoked where an ARIMA (1, 0, 0) model with a moderate to strong negative dependency fit the majority of the subjects. This provided strong support for the multiple regulation model. An appendix provides a brief review of time series methodology.

    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)325-345
    Number of pages21
    JournalAddictive Behaviors
    Issue number4
    Publication statusPublished - 1992


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