Alternative scenarios in forecasting demographic variables: the case of Indonesia

Studies on population dynamic have revealed that as the trends and patterns of demographic variables have changed the distribution shapes may also change. In fertility, for example, the decline in total fertility rates (TFR) may be followed by the shifting in the age of childbearing which in turn distorting the shape of fertility rates. Despite these facts, however, most forecasting done in developing countries has traditionally assumed the constant patterns of demographic variables, whereas the level have changed (e.g. TFR and IMR). This study attempts to fill this gap by contributing an alternative scenario in forecasting the demographic variables. Using multiple data resources (census and surveys), assumption for forecasting was constructed by incorporating variation in the age profile as well as in the level of demographic components. Demographic models, which include the models of demographic schedules and Heligman-Pollard, were applied. This study demonstrated how it is possible, using limited data that available in Indonesia and in many developing countries, to construct alternative ‘dynamic’ scenarios. It has been done so by applying some advanced demographic methods to Indonesia data, and draw evidence from other, similar countries. An alternative ‘dynamic’ scenario was implemented by using the changes of levels and patterns of demographic parameters over the forecasting period.