The majority of existing fire and explosion consequence models currently used in the offshore LNG process facilities focus on modelling individual accidental hazard. However, such undesired events can occur simultaneously leading to multiple consequences. This study focuses on developing a model-based Bayesian network (BN) approach to envisage the most probable accidental scenario in complex offshore process facilities by considering the evidence of primary causes. The proposed methodology comprises of evolving scenario identification, accident consequence framework development, accident scenario likelihood estimation, and ranking of the scenarios. The approach was tested and demonstrated with a case study for an offshore LNG process facility (Floating LNG). The developed methodology using the BN approach was found to be effective in determining the most credible accidental scenario.
|Title of host publication||Proceedings of the Twelfth (2016) Pacific-Asia Offshore Mechanics Symposium|
|Place of Publication||California|
|Publisher||International Society of Offshore and Polar Engineers|
|Number of pages||8|
|Publication status||Published - 2016|
|Event||ISOPE Pacific/Asia Offshore Mechanics Symposium 2016 (12th : 2016) - Gold Coast, Australia|
Duration: 4 Oct 2016 → 7 Oct 2016
|Conference||ISOPE Pacific/Asia Offshore Mechanics Symposium 2016 (12th : 2016)|
|Period||4/10/16 → 7/10/16|
- Bayesian network
- Consequence assessment
- Fire and explosion modelling
- Scenario-based modelling
- Offshore system
Baksh, M. A., Abbassi, R., Garaniya, V., & Khan , F. (2016). An application of BN to envisage potential accidents in FLNG facility. In Proceedings of the Twelfth (2016) Pacific-Asia Offshore Mechanics Symposium (pp. 297-304). California: International Society of Offshore and Polar Engineers.