An increasing incidence of upper gastrointestinal disorders over 23 Years: a prospective population-based study in Sweden

INTRODUCTION: We hypothesized that the prevalence of functional dyspepsia and gastroesophageal reflux disease in the community may be increasing. METHODS: Randomly selected adults were surveyed on 4 occasions: 1988 (n = 1,151, 21-79 years, response rate [rr] = 90%), 1989 (n = 1,097, 22-80 years, rr = 87%), 1995 (n = 1,139, 20-85 years, rr = 76%), and 2011 (n = 1,175, 20-93 years, rr = 63%). RESULTS: In functional dyspepsia, the odds of postprandial distress syndrome tripled over 23 years' follow-up (odds ratio [OR]: 3.55; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.60-4.84, mixed-effect regression analysis), whereas a small decrease in epigastric pain syndrome was observed (OR: 0.65, 95% CI: 0.42-1.00). The odds of reporting gastroesophageal reflux disease doubled (OR: 2.02; 95% CI: 1.50-2.73). DISCUSSION: The underlying mechanisms behind the increase in postprandial distress syndrome and gastroesophageal reflux disease remain to be determined.