Analysing the return distributions of Australian stocks

the CAPM, factor models and quantile regressions

David E. Allen*, Abhay Kumar Singh, Robert Powell

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

4 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Traditionally, ordinary least square (OLS) regression methods are used to test asset pricing models. This study focuses on the use of quantile regression as an alternative approach to the analysis of risk and return distributions in quantitative finance. It empirically examines the behaviour of two widely used asset pricing factors, beta and book to market ratios, but the focus is on minimising absolute deviations around the median rather than minimising squared deviations around the mean of their distributions, as we apply quantile regressions as opposed to OLS. We show how OLS is less able to capture the extreme values or the adverse losses in the return distribution, which on the other hand are captured by quantile regressions. The study not only shows that the factors do not necessarily follow a linear relationship but also shows that the traditional use of OLS becomes less effective when it comes to analysing the extremes within a distribution, which are often a source of keen interest for investors and risk managers.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)88-109
Number of pages22
JournalGlobal Business and Economics Review
Volume15
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2013
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • book to market ratios
  • capital asset pricing model
  • CAPM
  • quantile regression
  • S&P/ASX-50 stocks

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