Assessing contemporaneity and uncertainty in the Kazanlak Valley survey datasets

Functional ambiguity and chronological coarseness are well-known limitations of survey data. These issues contribute to the problem of contemporaneity and hinder synchronic settlement analysis. In this chapter, the impact of functional and temporal uncertainty in the Kazanlak dataset produced by the Tundzha Regional Archaeology Project (TRAP) is explored. Four datasets are derived from the Kazanlak surface survey data by excluding uncertainty along two axes, functional and chronological. These datasets are then subjected to Dewar’s probabilistic model to estimate the number of contemporary settlements per period. The number of contemporaneously occupied sites in six chronological periods between the Late Bronze Age and Early Byzantine period (1600 BC - AD 1000) are estimated. Dewar’s model indicates that occupation span of sites varied over time. Of particular interest is the dominance of short-term sites during the Late Iron Age, pointing to instability in the Kazanlak Valley, later replaced with stability and settlement growth during the Roman period. This assessment reveals that neither chronological nor functional uncertainty has a significant impact on the analysis of settlement dynamics. The subset of chronologically certain sites produces slightly higher estimates of contemporary settlements and longer estimates of average duration, but the differences remain within one standard deviation.