Assessing the potential impacts of climate change on weeds in New South Wales: establishing priorities

In 2004 the Australian Government officially recognised the significance of climate change on exotic species management (both weeds and pest animals) and biodiversity conservation, with the release of the National Action Plan for Biodiversity and Climate Change (NRMMC 2004). In order to meet the objective 'to minimise the impact of invasive organisms on biodiversity in future climates', baseline information is needed on the diversity and abundance of exotic species and their current and potential distributions under predicted climate change. This information is critical for assessing and quantifying the impacts that exotic species may have on biodiversity, both now and under future climate scenarios. This paper outlines a new research project that models the potential distribution of a range of exotic plants under predicted climate change. The exotic species selected in this study primarily occur within New South Wales and south-eastern Queensland. We have categorised the species into four groups based on the level of threat posed. Three bioclimatic modeling programs (CLIMEX, BIOCLIM and GARP) coupled to a geographic information system (Arc View 9 .I) will be used to predict the impact of climate change on the selected species. Information on the habitats most at risk from these species and on the native biodiversity likely to be threatened will be used to define areas where management can be focused.