Asset pricing using trading volumes in a hidden regime-switching environment

Robert J. Elliott*, Tak Kuen Siu

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

5 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

By utilizing information about prices and trading volumes, we discuss the pricing of European contingent claims in a continuous-time hidden regime-switching environment. Hidden market sentiments described by the states of a continuous-time, finite-state, hidden Markov chain represent a common factor for an asset’s drift and volatility, as well as its trading volumes. Using observations about trading volumes, we present a filtered estimate of the hidden common factor. The asset pricing problem is then considered in a filtered market, where the hidden drift and volatility are replaced by their filtered estimates. We adopt the Esscher transform to select an equivalent martingale measure for pricing and derive a partial-differential integral equation for the option price.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)133-149
Number of pages17
JournalAsia-Pacific Financial Markets
Volume22
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 May 2015

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