AUKUS: a bloc of Anglo-Saxon powers

This article analyses AUKUS through the theoretical lens of neo-offensive realism, with its distinctive emphasis on the articulation between system-level and unit-level variables for understanding alliance formation and dynamics. In so doing, it examines both system-level, geostrategic developments that pre-dispose the AUKUS partners to collectively balance against China, and the unit-level national politics of those countries, which differentially shape engagement with and enthusiasm for AUKUS. Empirically, the article charts systemic changes in relative economic and military power between China and the AUKUS partners, drawing on data from the World Bank and the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. This is followed by an examination of those contradictory unit-level forces that tend towards the consolidation of AUKUS, while simultaneously generating political opposition. Here official documents from the defence agencies of all three participants are examined. Finally, the article considers the future of AUKUS.