Beyond three score years and ten: prospects for longevity in Australia

Heather Booth, Leonie Tickle

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


Most estimates and projections of life expectancy are based on period measures. This paper presents forecasts of cohort life expectancy for older generations derived using the Lee-Carter method of forecasting mortality. These cohort measures point to more years of life expectancy than the commonly-cited current period measures. The new forecasts also indicate a more rapid increase in future life expectancy than official projections assume. Policy-makers and those planning retirement should take into account that Australians are likely to live longer than currently envisaged.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)15-27
Number of pages13
JournalPeople and place
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - 2004


  • mortality
  • demography
  • forecasting


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