Abstract
Most estimates and projections of life expectancy are based on period measures. This paper presents forecasts of cohort life expectancy for older generations derived using the Lee-Carter method of forecasting mortality. These cohort measures point to more years of life expectancy than the commonly-cited current period measures. The new forecasts also indicate a more rapid increase in future life expectancy than official projections assume. Policy-makers and those planning retirement should take into account that Australians are likely to live longer than currently envisaged.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 15-27 |
| Number of pages | 13 |
| Journal | People and place |
| Volume | 12 |
| Issue number | 1 |
| Publication status | Published - 2004 |
Keywords
- mortality
- demography
- forecasting