Change point detection for COVID-19 excess deaths in Belgium

Han Lin Shang*, Ruofan Xu

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

2 Citations (Scopus)


Emerging at the end of 2019, COVID-19 has become a public health threat to people worldwide. Apart from deaths with a positive COVID-19 test, many others have died from causes indirectly related to COVID-19. Therefore, the COVID-19 confirmed deaths underestimate the influence of the pandemic on society; instead, the measure of ‘excess deaths’ is a more objective and comparable way to assess the scale of the epidemic and formulate lessons. One common practical issue in analysing the impact of COVID-19 is to determine the ‘pre-COVID-19′ period and the ‘post-COVID-19′ period. We apply a change point detection method to identify any change points using excess deaths in Belgium.
Original languageEnglish
Number of pages9
JournalJournal of Population Research
Publication statusE-pub ahead of print - 6 Mar 2021


  • Mortality
  • Multivariate time series
  • Structural change


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