Changes to Australian terrestrial biodiversity

Australia is considered one of the most megadiverse countries in the world, being home to 7-10 per cent of the world’s species (Mittermeier, Gil and Mittermeier, 2007). The continent’s biodiversity is already subject to multiple threats, and rapid anthropogenic climate change will add to and interact with these existing stresses. The challenges for predicting the future of Australia’s terrestrial plants and animals are immense. We have a far-from-adequate understanding of the multiple factors determining the distribution and dynamics of even single populations or species, let alone whole communities and ecosystems. Further, biological systems tend to respond to environmental drivers in a non-linear fashion, and the likelihood of sudden ecological surprises and rapid transformations will increase. But despite the challenges, we must use whatever means we have to assess future risks, to provide a basis for adaptation planning. In this chapter I rst discuss how the environmental and biogeographic context under which Australia’s ora and fauna evolved offers us general guidance for predicting its future vulnerability and its potential to adapt. I then explore the likely consequences for species and ecosystems of future rapid climatic change, the potential for our biodiversity to adapt and the ultimate consequences of future loss.