Climate change and Arctic ecosystems: 2. Modeling, paleodata-model comparisons, and future projections

J. O. Kaplan*, N. H. Bigelow, I. C. Prentice, S. P. Harrison, P. J. Bartlein, T. R. Christensen, W. Cramer, N. V. Matveyeva, A. D. McGuire, D. F. Murray, V. Y. Razzhivin, B. Smith, D. A. Walker, P. M. Anderson, A. A. Andreev, L. B. Brubaker, M. E. Edwards, A. V. Lozhkin

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

305 Citations (Scopus)
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Abstract

Large variations in the composition, structure, and function of Arctic ecosystems are determined by climatic gradients, especially of growing-season warmth, soil moisture, and snow cover. A unified circumpolar classification recognizing five types of tundra was developed. The geographic distributions of vegetation types north of 55°N, including the position of the forest limit and the distributions of the tundra types, could be predicted from climatology using a small set of plant functional types embedded in the biogeochemistry-biogeography model BIOME4. Several palaeoclimate simulations for the last glacial maximum (LGM) and mid-Holocene were used to explore the possibility of simulating past vegetation patterns, which are independently known based on pollen data. The broad outlines of observed changes in vegetation were captured. LGM simulations showed the major reduction of forest, the great extension of graminoid and forb tundra, and the restriction of low- and high-shrub tundra (although not all models produced sufficiently dry conditions to mimic the full observed change). Mid-Holocene simulations reproduced the contrast between northward forest extension in western and central Siberia and stability of the forest limit in Beringia. Projection of the effect of a continued exponential increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration, based on a transient ocean-atmosphere simulation including sulfate aerosol effects, suggests a potential for larger changes in Arctic ecosystems during the 21st century than have occurred between mid-Holocene and present. Simulated physiological effects of the CO2 increase (to > 700 ppm) at high latitudes were slight compared with the effects of the change in climate.

Original languageEnglish
Article number12
Pages (from-to)1-17
Number of pages17
JournalJournal of Geophysical Research
Volume108
Issue numberD19
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 16 Oct 2003
Externally publishedYes

Bibliographical note

Copyright 2003 by the American Geophysical Union. Originally published as Kaplan, J. O., et al. (2003), Climate change and Arctic ecosystems: 2. Modeling, paleodata-model comparisons, and future projections, J. Geophys. Res., 108(D19), 8171, doi:10.1029/2002JD002559. Version archived for private and non-commercial use with the permission of the author/s and according to publisher conditions. For further rights please contact the publisher.

Keywords

  • tundra
  • biome
  • vegetation modeling
  • biogeography
  • ice age
  • mammoths

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