Climate scientists and the consensus on climate change: the Bray and von Storch surveys, 1996-2008

The international surveys of climate scientists conducted by Bray and von Storch in 1996, 2003 and 2008 represent the longest continuing series of such surveys to date. This paper outlines the main findings. It identifies propositions about climate change on which there appears to be a consensus as well as propositions, including ‘alarmist’ propositions, on which there is not. Since the surveys use Likert-type items, the paper identifies propositions on which there appears to be not just a consensus but also a strong consensus. There is a strong consensus around a series of key, inter-related, propositions: that climate change is happening, that climate change has anthropogenic causes, that human-induced climate change poses a serious threat to humanity, and that the threat is not likely to be met by voluntary action. Insofar as the surveys can be compared, the consensus was stronger in 2008 than in 1996. Nonetheless, consensus should not be mistaken for unanimity. Respondents acknowledged that ‘climate science’ was ‘an extremely complicated subject, full of uncertainties.’