TY - CHAP
T1 - Complexity in the future
T2 - far-from-equilibrium systems and strategic foresight
AU - Baker, David
PY - 2020
Y1 - 2020
N2 - A crucial question for practitioners of Big History is whether we should expect a continuation of increasing complexity or a deceleration or collapse of complexity in the Near Future. The ‘future sections’ of the majority of high-profile Big History narratives predominantly paint a binary between catastrophe and a green sustainable future. A minority of big historians have explored what technology and society could look like if complexity does continue to rise. Yet for greater specificity about what that Near Future may look like, we must go beyond disorganised speculation based on technological trends, fads, and rhetoric. Not to mention our own wishful inclinations. Complexity is understood in very broad and general terms, but a more detailed understanding of what complexity is, what its variables are, how it can be measured, and how it changes, will give us a more detailed view of complexity in the future. In essence, with more data on the pattern comes a greater ability to make stronger projections. This is where a more structured approach involving strategic foresight and complexity studies will allow us to profile the Near and Deep Future with a great deal more clarity.
AB - A crucial question for practitioners of Big History is whether we should expect a continuation of increasing complexity or a deceleration or collapse of complexity in the Near Future. The ‘future sections’ of the majority of high-profile Big History narratives predominantly paint a binary between catastrophe and a green sustainable future. A minority of big historians have explored what technology and society could look like if complexity does continue to rise. Yet for greater specificity about what that Near Future may look like, we must go beyond disorganised speculation based on technological trends, fads, and rhetoric. Not to mention our own wishful inclinations. Complexity is understood in very broad and general terms, but a more detailed understanding of what complexity is, what its variables are, how it can be measured, and how it changes, will give us a more detailed view of complexity in the future. In essence, with more data on the pattern comes a greater ability to make stronger projections. This is where a more structured approach involving strategic foresight and complexity studies will allow us to profile the Near and Deep Future with a great deal more clarity.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85090539649&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1007/978-3-030-33730-8_18
DO - 10.1007/978-3-030-33730-8_18
M3 - Chapter
SN - 9783030337292
T3 - World-Systems Evolution and Global Futures
SP - 397
EP - 417
BT - The 21st century singularity and global futures
A2 - Korotayev, Andrey V.
A2 - LePoire, David J.
PB - Springer, Springer Nature
CY - Cham, Switzerland
ER -