Crash prediction modelling at intersections in New Zealand 1990 to 2009

Shane Turner*, Graham Wood

*Corresponding author for this work

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference proceeding contributionpeer-review


    A large number of crash prediction models have been developed in New Zealand, for different road elements and for different speed limits. These models provide insight into crash causing mechanisms, which can in turn assist engineers in diagnosing safety problems. In conjunction with other road safety research (e.g. results of 'before and after' studies) they can also be used to predict the change in crashes that might result from an engineering improvement, whether good or bad. The crash modeling methods used in New Zealand are based on best practice overseas, from the UK, Canada and the USA, with some local enhancements. The research to date has produced a number of interesting and thought-provoking outcomes including the 'safety-in-numbers' effect for cyclists and pedestrians and that reducing visibility can lead to safety gains at roundabouts. This paper profiles the models that have been developed for low and high speed traffic signals, roundabouts and priority intersections in New Zealand. In addition to presenting the crash models and the modeling methods, the paper will show how the models are used to compare various forms of control at an intersection. It will highlight the importance of using the models within the prescribed flow ranges. The models are less accurate when used to extrapolate to traffic volumes that are not typical for the intersection type, for example, for low volume traffic signals and high volume priority intersections.

    Original languageEnglish
    Title of host publication32nd Australasian Transport Research Forum, ATRF 2009
    Place of PublicationNew Zealand
    PublisherAustralasian Transport Research Forum
    Number of pages19
    Publication statusPublished - 2009
    Event32nd Australasian Transport Research Forum, ATRF 2009 - Auckland, New Zealand
    Duration: 29 Sept 20091 Oct 2009


    Other32nd Australasian Transport Research Forum, ATRF 2009
    Country/TerritoryNew Zealand


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