Deciding to adopt but to what?

A two-stage complex systems model of the diffusion process

Steven D'Alessandro, Hume Winzar

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference proceeding contribution

Abstract

We present a conceptual model where agents adopt new technology through a two-step process: People decide to upgrade, and then decide what particular model to buy. Each step is influenced by information from neighbours. In a networked world with two options, White & Black, we systematically manipulate (1) the initial number of agents with White compared to Black, (2) rate of naturally-occurring upgrade, (3) chance of upgrade prompted by a neighbour using White relative to Black, and (4) the relative chance of choosing White instead of Black having first decided to upgrade. Not surprisingly, adoption speed is influenced by starting users, natural upgrade, and relative upgrade chance. Market share, on the other hand, is influenced only by the relative chance of choosing White over Black, with no influence at all from the other predictors. We find that this result applies regardless of the type or complexity of network.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationANZMAC 2012
Subtitle of host publicationconference proceedings : Sharing the cup of knowledge
Place of PublicationAdelaide
PublisherANZMAC2012 Conference
Pages1-7
Number of pages7
Publication statusPublished - 2012
EventAustralian and New Zealand Marketing Academy Conference (2012) - Adelaide
Duration: 3 Dec 20125 Dec 2012

Conference

ConferenceAustralian and New Zealand Marketing Academy Conference (2012)
CityAdelaide
Period3/12/125/12/12

Keywords

  • complexity theory
  • agent-based modelling
  • diffusion

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