Demographic projections of demand for criminal court services across New South Wales, Australia

Imogen Halstead, Brian Opeskin, Nicholas Parr

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapterResearchpeer-review

Abstract

Demographic projections can provide an evidential basis for the assessment of the future demand for criminal court services and facilities, and the future need for related staff, such as judges and magistrates. This chapter assesses the implications of projected changes in the size, composition and geographical distribution of the population of New South Wales (Australia) for the volume and geospatial dimensions of crime-related court service provision. The method involves application of court appearance rates by age, sex and local area to projections of the population. The results illustrate the pivotal importance of uncertainty relating to whether recent general declines in court appearance rates will continue. Under the assumption of constant court appearance rates, total court appearances are projected to increase by 18 % between 2012 and 2031. This is less than the 27 % projected growth of the population because of the concomitant increase in the share of older people, who have a lower propensity to appear before the courts. The projected percentage increases in court appearances are generally greater in Sydney, especially in Western and South-Western Sydney, whilst reductions are projected in regional New South Wales. In contrast, under the assumption of a linear extrapolation of trends in court appearance rates since 2002, a 10 % reduction in total court appearances between 2012 and 2031 is projected. The implications of the results for policies relating to court demand mitigation, judicial recruitment and retirement, judicial productivity, the provision of court infrastructure, and the geospatial dimensions of court service provision are discussed.
LanguageEnglish
Title of host publicationThe frontiers of applied demography
EditorsDavid A. Swanson
PublisherSpringer, Springer Nature
Pages75-102
Number of pages28
ISBN (Electronic)9783319433295
ISBN (Print)9783319433271
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2017

Publication series

NameApplied demography series
Volume9
ISSN (Print)2352-376X

Fingerprint

projection
demand
retirement
productivity
offense
uncertainty
infrastructure
staff

Keywords

  • population projections
  • courts
  • service provision
  • age-crime curve
  • crime trends
  • workforce planning
  • applied demography
  • Australia

Cite this

Halstead, I., Opeskin, B., & Parr, N. (2017). Demographic projections of demand for criminal court services across New South Wales, Australia. In D. A. Swanson (Ed.), The frontiers of applied demography (pp. 75-102). (Applied demography series; Vol. 9). Springer, Springer Nature. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-43329-5_5
Halstead, Imogen ; Opeskin, Brian ; Parr, Nicholas. / Demographic projections of demand for criminal court services across New South Wales, Australia. The frontiers of applied demography. editor / David A. Swanson. Springer, Springer Nature, 2017. pp. 75-102 (Applied demography series).
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Halstead, I, Opeskin, B & Parr, N 2017, Demographic projections of demand for criminal court services across New South Wales, Australia. in DA Swanson (ed.), The frontiers of applied demography. Applied demography series, vol. 9, Springer, Springer Nature, pp. 75-102. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-43329-5_5

Demographic projections of demand for criminal court services across New South Wales, Australia. / Halstead, Imogen; Opeskin, Brian; Parr, Nicholas.

The frontiers of applied demography. ed. / David A. Swanson. Springer, Springer Nature, 2017. p. 75-102 (Applied demography series; Vol. 9).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapterResearchpeer-review

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Halstead I, Opeskin B, Parr N. Demographic projections of demand for criminal court services across New South Wales, Australia. In Swanson DA, editor, The frontiers of applied demography. Springer, Springer Nature. 2017. p. 75-102. (Applied demography series). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-43329-5_5