Density and enhancement of the pancreatic tail on computer tomography predicts acinar score and pancreatic fistula after pancreatoduodenectomy

Background: Acinar score calculated at the pancreatic resection margin is associated with postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) after pancreatoduodenectomy (PD). The present study evaluates the association between (i) computed tomography (CT) density of the pancreas and the acinar score of the pancreatic resection margin, and (ii) CT density of the pancreas and POPF after PD. Methods: Consecutive patients who underwent PD were included for analysis. CT densities of the pancreatic head, neck, body and tail were measured in non-contrast (NC), arterial (ART) and portal venous (PV) phases. Histologic slides of the pancreatic resection margin were scored for acinar cell density. Results: Ninety patients were included for analysis. Non-contrast density of the pancreatic tail was a good predictor of POPF (AUROC 0.704, p = 0.036), and a cut-off value of >40 Hounsfield units predicted POPF with 70.0% sensitivity and 73.4% specificity. The ratio of densities between PV and NC phases in the pancreatic tail was also a good predictor of POPF (AUROC 0.712, p = 0.030), and a cut-off value of <2.29 predicted POPF with 70.9% sensitivity and 80% specificity. Conclusion: Non-contrast CT density of the pancreatic tail correlates with acinar cell density of the pancreatic resection margin and predicts the development of POPF after PD.