Discussion paper: disclosure standards for election and political polling in Australia

Darren Pennay*, Murray Goot, Phil Hughes, Dina Neiger, Jill Sheppard, John Stirton

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Book/ReportOther report

Abstract

This is an initial discussion paper issued by the Inquiry Panel formed by the Association of Market and Social Research Organisations (AMSRO) in collaboration with the Statistical Society of Australia (SSA), to review the performance of the opinion polls at the 2019 Australian federal election.

The paper follows AMSRO’s decision, along with the Statistical Society of Australia, to conduct a review of election polling in Australia to determine why all the published polls incorrectly called the outcome at last May’s Federal election and how methods can be improved in the future.

The discussion paper examines:

•The existing codes of conduct/guidelines that apply to election and other political polling in Australia;
•International guidelines for election and other political polling, as well as examples of disclosure standards in the USA, UK, Canada and New Zealand;
•Implications for the development of more comprehensive standards for election and other political polling in Australia, and;
•Initial recommendations and issues for consideration by AMSRO.
Original languageEnglish
PublisherAssociation of Market and Social Research Organisations and the Statistical Society of Australia (AMSRO)
Number of pages35
Publication statusPublished - May 2020

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