TY - JOUR

T1 - Does energy consumption follow asymmetric behavior? An assessment of Ghana's energy sector dynamics

AU - Sarkodie, Samuel Asumadu

AU - Crentsil, Aba Obrumah

AU - Owusu, Phebe Asantewaa

PY - 2019/2/15

Y1 - 2019/2/15

N2 - The study answered the following questions: First, does energy evolves in different regimes by transitioning over a finite set of unobserved states? Second, does energy consumption follow an asymmetric behavior over “energy boom” and energy scarcity? and, Third, are there unobserved factors underpinning energy crisis? We employed Markov-switching dynamic regression to examine the asymmetric effect, NIPALS regression to examine energy determinants and neural network analysis for prediction. The neural network model suggests a 99% prediction of energy consumption by the predictor variables. It was evident that energy consumption evolves in two states by transitioning over a finite set of unobserved states. The 11.6% growth in energy consumption is expected to occur in 4.1 years while energy crisis is expected to last for 3.7 years. Technological advancement and the development of green energy through foreign direct investment are essential to improve energy sector portfolio.

AB - The study answered the following questions: First, does energy evolves in different regimes by transitioning over a finite set of unobserved states? Second, does energy consumption follow an asymmetric behavior over “energy boom” and energy scarcity? and, Third, are there unobserved factors underpinning energy crisis? We employed Markov-switching dynamic regression to examine the asymmetric effect, NIPALS regression to examine energy determinants and neural network analysis for prediction. The neural network model suggests a 99% prediction of energy consumption by the predictor variables. It was evident that energy consumption evolves in two states by transitioning over a finite set of unobserved states. The 11.6% growth in energy consumption is expected to occur in 4.1 years while energy crisis is expected to last for 3.7 years. Technological advancement and the development of green energy through foreign direct investment are essential to improve energy sector portfolio.

KW - Energy efficiency

KW - Ghana

KW - Markov-switching

KW - Neural network

KW - NIPALS

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85055037901&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.10.147

DO - 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.10.147

M3 - Article

VL - 651

SP - 2886

EP - 2898

JO - Science of the Total Environment

JF - Science of the Total Environment

SN - 0048-9697

IS - 2

ER -