Abstract
We seek to determine whether a United States President's job approval rating is influenced by the Misery Index. This hypothesis is examined in two ways. First, we employ a nonlinear model that includes several macroeconomic variables: the current account deficit, exchange rate, unemployment, inflation, and mortgage rates. Second, we employ probit and logit regression models to calculate the probabilities of U.S. Presidents' approval ratings to the Misery Index. The results suggest that Layton's model does not perform well when adopted for the United States. Conversely, the probit and logit regression analysis suggests that the Misery Index significantly impacts the probability of the approval of U.S. Presidents' performances.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Article number | 22 |
| Pages (from-to) | 1-11 |
| Number of pages | 11 |
| Journal | Journal of risk and financial management |
| Volume | 12 |
| Issue number | 1 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 1 Feb 2019 |
Bibliographical note
Copyright 2019 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. Version archived for private and non-commercial use with the permission of the author/s and according to publisher conditions. For further rights please contact the publisher.Keywords
- Misery Index
- inflation
- unemployment
- Probit and Logit models
- Okun's law
Cite this
Adrangi, B., & Macri, J. (2019). Does the Misery Index influence a U.S. President's political re-election prospects? Journal of risk and financial management, 12(1), 1-11. [22]. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm12010022