Does the Misery Index influence a U.S. President's political re-election prospects?

Bahram Adrangi, Joseph Macri*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

We seek to determine whether a United States President's job approval rating is influenced by the Misery Index. This hypothesis is examined in two ways. First, we employ a nonlinear model that includes several macroeconomic variables: the current account deficit, exchange rate, unemployment, inflation, and mortgage rates. Second, we employ probit and logit regression models to calculate the probabilities of U.S. Presidents' approval ratings to the Misery Index. The results suggest that Layton's model does not perform well when adopted for the United States. Conversely, the probit and logit regression analysis suggests that the Misery Index significantly impacts the probability of the approval of U.S. Presidents' performances.

Original languageEnglish
Article number22
Pages (from-to)1-11
Number of pages11
JournalJournal of risk and financial management
Volume12
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Feb 2019

Bibliographical note

Copyright 2019 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. Version archived for private and non-commercial use with the permission of the author/s and according to publisher conditions. For further rights please contact the publisher.

Keywords

  • Misery Index
  • inflation
  • unemployment
  • Probit and Logit models
  • Okun's law

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