Dynamic two state stochastic models for ecological regime shifts

Jan Kloppenborg Møller, Jacob Carstensen, Henrik Madsen, Tom Andersen

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    3 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    A simple non-linear stochastic two state, discrete-time model is presented. The interaction between benthic and pelagic vegetation in aquatic ecosystems subject to changing external nutrient loading is described by the non-linear functions. The dynamical behavior of the deterministic part of the model illustrates that hysteresis effect and regime shifts can be obtained for a limited range of parameter values only. The effect of multiplicative noise components entering at different levels of the model is presented and discussed. Including noise leads to very different results on the stability of regimes, depending on how the noise propagates through the system. The dynamical properties of a system should therefore be described through propagation of the state distributions rather than the state means and consequently, stochastic models should be compared in a probabilistic framework.

    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)912-927
    Number of pages16
    JournalEnvironmetrics
    Volume20
    Issue number8
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - Dec 2009

    Keywords

    • Aquatic ecosystems
    • Bistability
    • Hysteresis
    • Multiplicative noise
    • Stochastic state space models

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    Møller, J. K., Carstensen, J., Madsen, H., & Andersen, T. (2009). Dynamic two state stochastic models for ecological regime shifts. Environmetrics, 20(8), 912-927. https://doi.org/10.1002/env.962