Dynamics of origination and extinction in the marine fossil record

John Alroy*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter


The discipline-wide effort to database the fossil record at the occurrence level has made it possible to estimate marine invertebrate extinction and origination rates with much greater accuracy. The new data show that two biotic mechanisms have hastened recoveries from mass extinctions and confined diversity to a relatively narrow range over the past 500 million years (Myr). First, a drop in diversity of any size correlates with low extinction rates immediately afterward, so much so that extinction would almost come to a halt if diversity dropped by 90%. Second, very high extinction rates are followed by equally high origination rates. The two relationships predict that the rebound from the current mass extinction will take at least 10 Myr, and perhaps 40 Myr if it rivals the Permo-Triassic catastrophe. Regardless, any large event will result in a dramatic ecological and taxonomic restructuring of the biosphere. The data also confirm that extinction and origination rates both declined through the Phanerozoic and that several extinctions in addition to the Permo-Triassic event were particularly severe. However, the trend may be driven by taxonomic biases and the rates vary in accord with a simple lognormal distribution, so there is no sharp distinction between background and mass extinctions. Furthermore, the lack of any significant autocorrelation in the data is inconsistent with macroevolutionary theories of periodicity or self-organized criticality.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationIn the light of evolution
Subtitle of host publicationVolume II: Biodiversity and extinction
EditorsJohn C. Avise, Stephen P. Hubbell, Francisco J. Ayala
PublisherNational Academy of Sciences
Number of pages20
ISBN (Electronic)9780309164337
ISBN (Print)9780309127431
Publication statusPublished - 2008
Externally publishedYes

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