Ecology: Ecosystem service supply and vulnerability to global change in Europe

Dagmar Schröter*, Wolfgang Cramer, Rik Leemans, I. Colin Prentice, Miguel B. Araújo, Nigel W. Arnell, Alberte Bondeau, Harald Bugmann, Timothy R. Carter, Carlos A. Gracia, Anne C. De La Vega-Leinert, Markus Erhard, Frank Ewert, Margaret Glendining, Joanna I. House, Susanna Kankaanpää, Richard J T Klein, Sandra Lavorel, Marcus Lindner, Marc J. MetzgerJeannette Meyer, Timothy D. Mitchell, Isabelle Reginster, Mark Rounsevell, Santi Sabaté, Stephen Sitch, Ben Smith, Jo Smith, Pete Smith, Martin T. Sykes, Kirsten Thonicke, Wilfried Thuiller, Gill Tuck, Sönke Zaehle, Bärbel Zierl

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

1131 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Global change will alter the supply of ecosystem services that are vital for human well-being. To investigate ecosystem service supply during the 21st century, we used a range of ecosystem models and scenarios of climate and land-use change to conduct a Europe-wide assessment. Large changes in climate and land use typically resulted in large changes in ecosystem service supply. Some of these trends may be positive (for example, increases in forest area and productivity) or offer opportunities (for example, "surplus land" for agricultural extensification and bioenergy production). However, many changes increase vulnerability as a result of a decreasing supply of ecosystem services (for example, declining soil fertility, declining water availability, increasing risk of forest fires), especially in the Mediterranean and mountain regions.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1333-1337
Number of pages5
JournalScience
Volume310
Issue number5752
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 25 Nov 2005
Externally publishedYes

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