Economic impact of informal caring for a person with arthritis in Australia from 2015 to 2030: a microsimulation approach using national survey data

Objectives: To estimate the economic burden of informal caregivers not in the labour force (NILF) due to caring for a person with arthritis in Australia, with projections of these costs from 2015 to 2030.

Design: Static microsimulation modelling using national survey data.

Setting: Australia nationwide survey.

Participants: Participants include respondents to the Survey of Disability, Ageing and Carers who are informal carers of a person who has arthritis as their main chronic condition and non-carers.

Outcome measures: Estimating the economic impact and national aggregated costs of informal carers NILF to care for a person with arthritis and projecting these costs from 2015 to 2030 in 5-year intervals.

Results: On a per-person basis, when adjusted for age, sex and highest education attained, the difference in average weekly total income between informal carers and non-carers employed in the labour force is $A1051 (95% CI: $A927 to $A1204) in 2015 and projected to increase by up to 22% by 2030. When aggregated, the total national annual loss of income to informal carers NILF is estimated at $A388.2 million (95% CI: $A324.3 to $A461.9 million) in 2015, increasing to $A576.9 million (95% CI: $A489.2 to $A681.8 million) by 2030. The national annual tax revenue lost to the government of the informal carers NILF is estimated at $A99 million (95% CI: $A77.9 to $A126.4 million) in 2015 and is projected to increase 49% by 2030.

Conclusion: Informal carers NILF are economically worse off than employed non-carers, and the aggregated national annual costs are substantial. The future economic impact of informal carers NILF to care for a person with arthritis in Australia is projected to increase, with the estimated differences in income between informal carers and employed non-carers increasing by 22% from 2015 to 2030.