TY - JOUR
T1 - Economical assessment of large-scale photovoltaic power development in China
AU - Zhang, Da
AU - Chai, Qimin
AU - Zhang, Xiliang
AU - He, Jiankun
AU - Yue, Li
AU - Dong, Xiufen
AU - Wu, Shu
PY - 2012
Y1 - 2012
N2 - Photovoltaic (PV) power has a huge resource of supply, wide range of usage, and low impact on environment and it is considered as a key factor of the supply mix in the future for China. PV power is still in its infancy in China. It has higher cost than coal-fired power, and needs policy support. In recent years, China has launched a series of policies to stimulate PV power. These policies, however, are temporal, mainly because the total additional investment to make PV power grid parity is uncertain. After a brief review on current status of PV power development in China, this paper applies learning curve theory to study the cost reduction trends of polycrystalline silicon PV cells - main components of large-scale PV (LS-PV) power generation, then sets different scenarios to estimate time and the total learning cost of PV power's grid parity. MESSAGE model is also applied to make a comparable estimation of the future PV installation in China. The results show that long-term subsidy policy for PV power is feasible in China with the rising cost of coal-fired power, but aggressive subsidy policy is not very efficient.
AB - Photovoltaic (PV) power has a huge resource of supply, wide range of usage, and low impact on environment and it is considered as a key factor of the supply mix in the future for China. PV power is still in its infancy in China. It has higher cost than coal-fired power, and needs policy support. In recent years, China has launched a series of policies to stimulate PV power. These policies, however, are temporal, mainly because the total additional investment to make PV power grid parity is uncertain. After a brief review on current status of PV power development in China, this paper applies learning curve theory to study the cost reduction trends of polycrystalline silicon PV cells - main components of large-scale PV (LS-PV) power generation, then sets different scenarios to estimate time and the total learning cost of PV power's grid parity. MESSAGE model is also applied to make a comparable estimation of the future PV installation in China. The results show that long-term subsidy policy for PV power is feasible in China with the rising cost of coal-fired power, but aggressive subsidy policy is not very efficient.
KW - China
KW - Learning cost
KW - Photovoltaic (PV)
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84859110390&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.energy.2012.01.053
DO - 10.1016/j.energy.2012.01.053
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:84859110390
SN - 0360-5442
VL - 40
SP - 370
EP - 375
JO - Energy
JF - Energy
IS - 1
ER -