Emission consequences of transformation of Australia's energy generation portfolio to 2050

There is a high level of uncertainty concerning the generation technologies which will be used to provide for future Australian electricity needs. A series of scenarios have been developed where various greenhouse gas and tech-nology constraints were introduced. Prediction of the generation portfolio under these scenarios demonstrates that no single technological solution will be optimal. Rather than a single solution it is believed that a technological mix will evolve dependant on the economic, policy and environmental constraints which emerge over the next fifty years. The emission outcomes of the different predicted mixes of technology are evaluated. This evaluation has shown that pollutant outputs are strongly dependant on generation technology selection. Even with the most ‘green’ scenario assessed NOₓ is predicted to be 50% higher than 1990 levels by 2050. Over the same time period SOₓ is predicted to be approximately double current levels under a Business as Usual scenario. But it is expected to be significantly decreased if both IGCC technology is adopted or coal based technologies are mostly replaced by gas and renewables. The technique shows potential to assist in the development of policy to improve sustainability for the generation sector.