Emission consequences of transformation of Australia's energy generation portfolio to 2050

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference proceeding contribution

    Abstract

    There is a high level of uncertainty concerning the generation technologies which will be used to provide for future Australian electricity needs. A series of scenarios have been developed where various greenhouse gas and tech-nology constraints were introduced. Prediction of the generation portfolio under these scenarios demonstrates that no single technological solution will be optimal. Rather than a single solution it is believed that a technological mix will evolve dependant on the economic, policy and environmental constraints which emerge over the next fifty years. The emission outcomes of the different predicted mixes of technology are evaluated. This evaluation has shown that pollutant outputs are strongly dependant on generation technology selection. Even with the most ‘green’ scenario assessed NOₓ is predicted to be 50% higher than 1990 levels by 2050. Over the same time period SOₓ is predicted to be approximately double current levels under a Business as Usual scenario. But it is expected to be significantly decreased if both IGCC technology is adopted or coal based technologies are mostly replaced by gas and renewables. The technique shows potential to assist in the development of policy to improve sustainability for the generation sector.
    Original languageEnglish
    Title of host publicationTowards a new agenda
    Subtitle of host publicationproceedings 17th International Clean Air & Environment Conference, Hobart, Tasmania, 3-6 May 2005
    Place of PublicationHobart
    PublisherConvention Wise
    Number of pages5
    ISBN (Print)0957850395
    Publication statusPublished - 2005
    EventInternational Clean Air and Environment Conference (17th : 2005) - Hobart
    Duration: 3 May 20056 May 2005

    Conference

    ConferenceInternational Clean Air and Environment Conference (17th : 2005)
    CityHobart
    Period3/05/056/05/05

    Keywords

    • SOₓ
    • NOₓ
    • future emissions prediction
    • electricity generation
    • technology choice

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