Estimation of disability transition probabilities in Australia I: preliminary

Evan A. Hariyanto, David C. M. Dickson, David G. W. Pitt

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


This is the first of two papers in which we estimate transition probabilities amongst levels of disability as defined in the Australian Survey of Disability, Ageing and Carers. In this paper we describe both the main tools of our estimation and the estimation of the numbers of individuals in different disability categories at annual intervals using survey data that are available at five year intervals. In Paper II we describe our estimation procedure, followed by its implementation, discussion of results and graduation of the estimated transition probabilities.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)131-155
Number of pages25
JournalAnnals of Actuarial Science
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - 2014


  • disability
  • multiple-state model
  • transition probability
  • log-linear model
  • iterative proportional fitting
  • graduation


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