Evaluation of the product ratio coherent model in forecasting mortality rates and life expectancy at births by states

Syazreen Niza Shair*, Aida Yuzi Yusof, Nurin Haniah Asmuni

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference proceeding contribution

3 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Coherent mortality forecasting models have recently received increasing attention particularly in their application to sub-populations. The advantage of coherent models over independent models is the ability to forecast a non-divergent mortality for two or more sub-populations. One of the coherent models was recently developed by [1] known as the product-ratio model. This model is an extension version of the functional independent model from [2]. The product-ratio model has been applied in a developed country, Australia [1] and has been extended in a developing nation, Malaysia [3]. While [3] accounted for coherency of mortality rates between gender and ethnic group, the coherency between states in Malaysia has never been explored. This paper will forecast the mortality rates of Malaysian sub-populations according to states using the product ratio coherent model and its independent version - the functional independent model. The forecast accuracies of two different models are evaluated using the out-of-sample error measurements - the mean absolute forecast error (MAFE) for age-specific death rates and the mean forecast error (MFE) for the life expectancy at birth. We employ Malaysian mortality time series data from 1991 to 2014, segregated by age, gender and states.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication3rd ISM International Statistical Conference 2016 (ISM III)
Subtitle of host publicationBringing Professionalism and Prestige in Statistics
EditorsShaiful Anuar Abu Bakar, Rossita Mohamad Yunus, Ibrahim Mohamed
Place of PublicationUnited States
PublisherAmerican Institute of Physics
Pages1-10
Number of pages10
Volume1842
ISBN (Electronic)9780735415126
ISBN (Print)9780735415126
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 12 May 2017
Externally publishedYes
Event3rd ISM International Statistical Conference 2016: Bringing Professionalism and Prestige in Statistics, ISM 2016 - Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
Duration: 9 Aug 201611 Aug 2016

Publication series

NameAIP Conference Proceedings
PublisherAmerican Institute of Physics
ISSN (Print)0094-243X
ISSN (Electronic)1551-7616

Other

Other3rd ISM International Statistical Conference 2016: Bringing Professionalism and Prestige in Statistics, ISM 2016
CountryMalaysia
CityKuala Lumpur
Period9/08/1611/08/16

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